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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd