Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”